Abbott Is Back Ahead By One Point, But Texas Is Not Decided

A month ago, a poll had Gina Hinojosa ahead of Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas. Now a new poll puts Abbott back in front by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, just before early voting begins.

That is not a landslide. It is barely a lead.

The poll, from ReconMR, surveyed 617 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. That means the one-point difference does not prove Abbott has pulled away. It says the race is close enough that neither campaign can afford to assume anything.

Still, the direction matters.

In September, the same pollster had Hinojosa ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. Abbott now leads by one. That is a five-point move in his favor in about a month, with early voting set for October 19 through October 30 and Election Day on November 3.

What the poll actually says

The poll shows Abbott with 48 percent support and Hinojosa with 47 percent among likely voters.

It also shows why the race feels unsettled. Abbott leads among Republicans, 92 percent to 5 percent. Hinojosa leads among Democrats, 94 percent to 2 percent. Neither candidate appears to be losing their own side.

The fight is over everyone else.

Hinojosa still leads among likely independents, 57 percent to 34 percent. But that margin has narrowed. In September, she led independents by 65 percent to 27 percent.

That is the number I would watch. A candidate can win a party’s loyalty and still lose an election if the middle of the electorate moves even a little. The new poll suggests some of that movement has happened.

Abbott’s approval rating remains negative in the survey. Forty-eight percent approve of his job as governor, while 51 percent disapprove. That is better for him than September, when the poll showed 45 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, but it is still not a comfortable place for an incumbent seeking another term.

The geography is uneven

Texas is not one electorate. It is several, and the poll makes that plain.

Abbott leads by 25 points in rural Texas. Hinojosa leads 75 percent to 22 percent in Austin, 52 percent to 44 percent in Houston, and 53 percent to 42 percent in San Antonio and South Texas. The two are tied at 48 percent in Dallas-Fort Worth.

That pattern tells a familiar story: cities and South Texas lean toward Hinojosa, rural Texas leans toward Abbott, and the large metro areas could decide the outcome.

For voters, this matters in a practical way. A close statewide race can turn on whether people who intend to vote actually do. Campaigns will spend the final days trying to identify supporters, remind them to vote, and make sure they have a plan.

Early voting gives them a longer window to do that. It also gives voters more chances to participate without waiting for Election Day.

Other polls do not settle it

The new ReconMR result is not the only recent reading of the race.

A YouGov poll conducted from September 28 to October 5 found Hinojosa ahead 48 percent to 47 percent. That survey included 3,625 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Other recent polls have pointed in different directions. A Fox News poll put Abbott ahead 52 percent to 47 percent. A New York Times/Siena poll had Hinojosa ahead 49 percent to 46 percent.

Put those results together, and the honest reading is not “Abbott is winning” or “Hinojosa is winning.” It is that the race is effectively tied, with small differences depending on the pollster, the sample, and the timing.

That can be frustrating for people who want a clear answer. But polling is not a prediction machine. It is a snapshot of a moving electorate, taken with limits and uncertainty attached.

Why this one matters

A governor’s race affects the things people feel in daily life: schools, power grids, health care access, wages, state spending, and the tone of state government. Those issues do not always show up neatly in a single poll number, but they are what the contest is ultimately about.

Abbott is seeking a fourth term. Hinojosa is a Democratic state representative trying to unseat him. The closeness of the race is itself notable in a state where statewide Democrats have often faced steep odds.

For Abbott, the new poll offers relief after a month in which the public numbers had turned against him. For Hinojosa, it is a warning that a narrow lead can disappear quickly, especially once voting begins.

For everyone else, it is a reminder that one point is not a verdict.

The candidates now have less than three weeks before early voting starts. The poll gives Abbott a reason to feel steadier. It gives Hinojosa a reason to press harder. And it gives Texas voters a reason to pay attention, because the difference between winning and losing may come down to turnout, not rhetoric.

I would not call this a comeback yet. I would call it a contest that has tightened again, with both sides still fighting for the same uncertain voters.

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