Talarico's Lead Shrinks by One Point as Undecided Voters Dwindle

James Talarico’s advantage over Ken Paxton has narrowed by one point in two new Texas polls, and the pool of undecided voters has grown smaller. That is the fact. It lands quietly, but it changes the shape of the race with less than a month before early voting begins.

The latest survey from Texas Public Opinion Research, conducted September 19 to 22, shows Talarico at 49 percent and Paxton at 44 percent. That is a five-point lead, down from a six-point margin in TPOR’s August poll. The same poll found that only 3 percent of voters remain undecided, compared with 7 percent in August. Fewer people sitting on the fence means fewer votes left up for grabs.

A second poll, from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, puts Talarico at 47 percent and Paxton at 46 percent. That is a one-point lead, also within the survey’s margin of error. Both polls agree on the direction: Talarico still leads, but the gap has tightened as the election draws near.

I read these numbers over my morning coffee and felt a small tug of worry. Not alarm. Just the kind of quiet concern that comes when a race people have been watching closely starts to look even more uncertain. A one-point shift is not a collapse. It is a reminder that polls are snapshots, not promises.

What matters more to me is what the shrinking undecided pool means for ordinary Texans. When 7 percent of voters were still making up their minds, campaigns had room to persuade. Now, with only 3 percent undecided in the TPOR survey, the race looks more like a test of turnout. Who shows up will matter more than who can be convinced.

Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin, has led in every public poll conducted this month. That is unusual for a Democrat in a statewide Texas race. But Paxton, the state’s attorney general, still holds strong support among white voters and voters 50 and older. The TSU poll found Paxton ahead by 19 points among white likely voters, while Talarico leads by 19 points among Latino voters and by 77 points among Black voters. Those gaps have not moved much.

The real question now is whether Talarico can hold his edge among independent voters. The TPOR poll shows him with a 32-point lead over Paxton among independents, 58 percent to 32 percent. That is a large margin, but independent voters can be unpredictable. If even a small slice of them drift back toward Paxton or stay home, the one-point narrowing we see now could widen.

I keep thinking about the voters in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs. That region is the largest media market in Texas, and it has become a battleground in this race. Some former Republican leaders there have said they will back Talarico or leave the Senate line blank rather than vote for Paxton. Their reasons vary. Some cite Paxton’s legal troubles. Others say they are frustrated with the direction of the Republican Party. Whatever the cause, their choices could tip the balance in a race this close.

Affordability has dominated the campaign conversation. Both candidates have promised to help voters with rising costs. Talarico has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and increasing taxes on billionaires and corporations. Paxton has focused on border security and immigration enforcement as a path to economic stability. Voters hear both messages. It is not clear yet which one will move more people to the polls.

Early voting begins October 19. Election Day is November 3. That leaves just over three weeks for campaigns to make their final pitch. With fewer undecided voters left, that pitch will be less about persuasion and more about motivation. Can Talarico turn his lead among independents and minority voters into actual ballots? Can Paxton rally his base enough to close the gap?

I do not know the answer. Neither does anyone else. What I do know is that a one-point shift in the polls, paired with a smaller pool of undecided voters, makes the final weeks feel heavier. Every door knocked, every call made, every ride to the polls could matter more now than it did a month ago.

The race is still too close to call with certainty. But the direction is clear. Talarico’s lead has narrowed. The undecideds have dwindled. What happens next depends on people who have already made up their minds showing up to vote. That is a simple truth, but it is the one that will decide this election.

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