Michigan's Arab Voters Turn From Trump
The Arab American community in Michigan helped Donald Trump carry the state in 2024. Now, in the current Senate race, Republicans are experiencing floundering support from that same community.
That shift is not a small detail. It sits at the center of one of the tightest Senate contests in the country, between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim physician whose parents are Egyptian immigrants. Michigan has nearly 400,000 Arab Americans, the largest share of any state, and many live in the Detroit metro area where votes are counted closely.
I read the latest reports and felt a quiet worry. This is not about outrage. It is about trust. People voted for a promise. They now say the promise does not match what they see.
Four days before the 2024 election, Trump told a crowd in Dearborn that “the Muslim population” is “liking Trump.” On Election Day, Arab Americans in Michigan helped deliver him a win. In Dearborn, a Detroit suburb that is the only Arab-majority city in the U.S., Trump won by six points. That was a sharp turn from 2020, when Joe Biden and then-Sen. Gary Peters each won the city by around 40 points.
Today, many in that community say they are fed up. They point to the ongoing war in Iran and a slow peace process in Gaza. They also point to GOP attacks on El-Sayed that some describe as Islamophobic and racist. The result is a pullback from Republicans that could change the math in November.
Hassan Nehme, who served as the Michigan Republican Party’s vice chair during the 2024 cycle and helped lead outreach to the Arab American community, put it plainly. “Once the administration got into the White House, everything we were told kind of flip-flopped,” he said. “We lost all traction. Republicans are kind of dead in the water in the area right now.”
Faye Nemer, who leads the Dearborn-based Middle Eastern and North African American Chamber of Commerce, said the midterms will mark a “change in sentiment” in her community toward Republicans. “Many voters, including myself, are now asking whether the policy promises we received bear any resemblance to the reality that we’re seeing on the ground,” she said.
This isn’t about just one race. It is about what happens when a group that moved for a candidate feels let down. The Arab American community did not swing to Trump because it turned conservative. Many voted against Kamala Harris over Gaza and cost-of-living issues. They were not voting for Trump’s broader agenda. So when that agenda arrived, the alignment broke.
The stakes are clear. Trump carried Michigan in 2024 by about 80,000 votes. In the Senate race that same year, Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated Rogers by fewer than 20,000 votes. A dip in support from Arab American former Trump voters could hurt Rogers’ path to election in what is shaping up to be a tough year nationally for the GOP. And it could offset gains he makes in other communities, including with some Jewish voters who are wary of El-Sayed for his harsh criticism of Israel and comments from him and his allies that some see as antisemitic.
Recent polling shows how close this is. An AARP poll found El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 47 percent among likely voters, well within the poll’s margin of error. An EPIC-MRA poll conducted in late August showed El-Sayed ahead 47 percent to 43 percent. Another survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed El-Sayed leading 46 percent to 39 percent, with nine percent undecided. A Fox News poll showed the opposite result, with Rogers leading 51 percent to 47 percent. The spread is small enough that any shift in a key bloc matters.
I keep returning to the human piece. These are families who live in Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, who run small businesses, who send kids to school, who worry about rent and groceries and safety. They are not analysts. They are voters who made a choice based on what they were told and what they felt. When that choice no longer feels right, they move.
Some Republicans see the risk. One GOP strategist told reporters that the party “should be more concerned about losing the long-term trust of the Arab American community than about losing the gains they made in 2024.” That is a sober take. It treats voters as people, not as a one-time boost.
There is another layer. During Rogers’ unsuccessful 2024 Senate bid, he acknowledged that his outspoken support for Israel caused some consternation for Muslim voters. That cycle, Trump won Dearborn by six points. Rogers ran behind him, losing in the city by two points. The gap mattered then. It could matter more now.
El-Sayed’s campaign has energized turnout in Arab American areas. In the August Democratic primary, record numbers of voters in Dearborn and Dearborn Heights backed El-Sayed, providing him a margin large enough to overcome his rival’s advantage elsewhere and win statewide. Across Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, El-Sayed received 16,265 more votes than his primary opponent. In Dearborn alone, he received 15,899 votes, or 77.6 percent, compared with 4,160 for his opponent. About 84 percent of Dearborn voters cast ballots in the Democratic U.S. Senate contest, reflecting El-Sayed’s popularity and his campaign’s ability to energize voters.
Yet the extent of the Arab American community’s move away from traditional Republican allies like Mike Rogers is debated among political analysts. Some say the shift is deep and lasting. Others say it is a protest that could soften if conditions change. I do not know which view will prove right. I do know that trust, once strained, takes time to rebuild.
What I feel, reading this, is not anger. It is a quiet concern for what happens when people feel unheard. Politics is not a game to them. It is a way to protect their families and their futures. When they say a promise was broken, they mean it.
The Senate race in Michigan will be decided by small margins. The Arab American community is moving away from Republican support. This shows a big change in the state’s politics. That change is already here. It will be counted in November.